This unique treatment systematically interprets a spectrum of importance measures to provide a comprehensive overview of their applications in the areas of reliability, network, risk, mathematical programming, and optimization. Investigating the precise relationships among various importance measures, it describes how they are modelled and combined with other design tools to allow users to solve readily many real-world, large-scale decision-making problems. Presenting the state-of-the-art in network analysis, multistate systems, and application in modern systems, this book offers a clear and complete introduction to the topic. Through describing the reliability importance and the fundamentals, it covers advanced topics such as signature of coherent systems, multi-linear functions, and new interpretation of the mathematical programming problems. Key highlights: Generalizes the concepts behind importance measures (such as sensitivity and perturbation analysis, uncertainty analysis, mathematical programming, network designs), enabling readers to address large-scale problems within various fields effectively Covers a large range of importance measures, including those in binary coherent systems, binary monotone systems, multistate systems, continuum systems, repairable systems, as well as importance measures of pairs and groups of components Demonstrates numerical and practical applications of importance measures and the related methodologies, including risk analysis in nuclear power plants, cloud computing, software reliability and more Provides thorough comparisons, examples and case studies on relations of different importance measures, with conclusive results based on the authors’ own research Describes reliability design such as redundancy allocation, system upgrading and component assignment. This book will benefit researchers and practitioners interested in systems design, reliability, risk and optimization, statistics, maintenance, prognostics and operations. Readers can develop feasible approaches to solving various open-ended problems in their research and practical work. Software developers, IT analysts and reliability and safety engineers in nuclear, telecommunications, offshore and civil industries will also find the book useful.
Introduces the latest techniques advocated for measuring financial market risk and portfolio optimization, and provides a plethora of R code examples that enable the reader to replicate the results featured throughout the book. Financial Risk Modelling and Portfolio Optimization with R: Demonstrates techniques in modelling financial risks and applying portfolio optimization techniques as well as recent advances in the field. Introduces stylized facts, loss function and risk measures, conditional and unconditional modelling of risk; extreme value theory, generalized hyperbolic distribution, volatility modelling and concepts for capturing dependencies. Explores portfolio risk concepts and optimization with risk constraints. Enables the reader to replicate the results in the book using R code. Is accompanied by a supporting website featuring examples and case studies in R. Graduate and postgraduate students in finance, economics, risk management as well as practitioners in finance and portfolio optimization will find this book beneficial. It also serves well as an accompanying text in computer-lab classes and is therefore suitable for self-study.
An accessible treatment of Monte Carlo methods, techniques, and applications in the field of finance and economics Providing readers with an in-depth and comprehensive guide, the Handbook in Monte Carlo Simulation: Applications in Financial Engineering, Risk Management, and Economics presents a timely account of the applicationsof Monte Carlo methods in financial engineering and economics. Written by an international leading expert in thefield, the handbook illustrates the challenges confronting present-day financial practitioners and provides various applicationsof Monte Carlo techniques to answer these issues. The book is organized into five parts: introduction andmotivation; input analysis, modeling, and estimation; random variate and sample path generation; output analysisand variance reduction; and applications ranging from option pricing and risk management to optimization. The Handbook in Monte Carlo Simulation features: An introductory section for basic material on stochastic modeling and estimation aimed at readers who may need a summary or review of the essentials Carefully crafted examples in order to spot potential pitfalls and drawbacks of each approach An accessible treatment of advanced topics such as low-discrepancy sequences, stochastic optimization, dynamic programming, risk measures, and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods Numerous pieces of R code used to illustrate fundamental ideas in concrete terms and encourage experimentation The Handbook in Monte Carlo Simulation: Applications in Financial Engineering, Risk Management, and Economics is a complete reference for practitioners in the fields of finance, business, applied statistics, econometrics, and engineering, as well as a supplement for MBA and graduate-level courses on Monte Carlo methods and simulation.
Book DescriptionIn this volume the methodological aspects of the scenario logic and probabilistic (LP) non-success risk management are considered. The theoretical bases of scenario non-success risk LP-management in business and engineering are also stated. Methods and algorithms for the scenario risk LP-management in problems of classification, investment and effectiveness are described. Risk LP- models and results of numerical investigations for credit risks, risk of frauds, security portfolio risk, risk of quality, accuracy, and risk in multi-stage systems reliability are given. In addition, a rather large number of new problems of estimation, analysis and management of risk are considered. Software for risk problems based on LP-methods, LP-theory, andGIE is described too.
Optimization is generally a reduction operation of a definite quantity. This process naturally takes place in our environment and through our activities. For example, many natural systems evolve, in order to minimize their potential energy. Modeling these phenomena then largely relies on our capacity to artificially reproduce these processes. In parallel, optimization problems have quickly emerged from human activities, notably from economic concerns. This book includes the most recent ideas coming from research and industry in the field of optimization, reliability and the recognition of accompanying uncertainties. It is made up of eight chapters which look at the reviewing of uncertainty tools, system reliability, optimal design of structures and their optimization (of sizing, form, topology and multi-objectives) – along with their robustness and issues on optimal safety factors. Optimization reliability coupling will also be tackled in order to take into account the uncertainties in the modeling and resolution of the problems encountered. The book is aimed at students, lecturers, engineers, PhD students and researchers. Contents 1. Uncertainty. 2. Reliability in Mechanical Systems. 3. Optimal Structural Design. 4. Multi-object Optimization with Uncertainty. 5. Robust Optimization. 6. Reliability Optimization. 7. Optimal Security Factors Approach. 8. Reliability-based Topology Optimization. About the Authors Abdelkhalak El Hami is Professor at the Institut National des Sciences Appliquées, Rouen, France. He is the author of many articles and books on optimization and uncertainty. Bouchaib Radi is Professor in the Faculty of Sciences and Technology at the University of Hassan Premier, Settat, Morocco. His research interests are in such areas as structural optimization, parallel computation, contact problem and metal forming. He is the author of many scientific articles and books.
A comprehensively updated and reorganized new edition. The updates include comparative methods for improving reliability; methods for optimal allocation of limited resources to achieve a maximum risk reduction; methods for improving reliability at no extra cost and building reliability networks for engineering systems. Includes: A unique set of 46 generic principles for reducing technical risk Monte Carlo simulation algorithms for improving reliability and reducing risk Methods for setting reliability requirements based on the cost of failure New reliability measures based on a minimal separation of random events on a time interval Overstress reliability integral for determining the time to failure caused by overstress failure modes A powerful equation for determining the probability of failure controlled by defects in loaded components with complex shape Comparative methods for improving reliability which do not require reliability data Optimal allocation of limited resources to achieve a maximum risk reduction Improving system reliability based solely on a permutation of interchangeable components
An introduction to risk assessment that utilizes key theory and state-of-the-art applications With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline the overall risk assessment process, and a discussion of accident models and accident causation offers readers new insights into how and why accidents occur to help them make better assessments. Risk Assessment Methods and Applications carefully describes the most relevant methods for risk assessment, including preliminary hazard analysis, HAZOP, fault tree analysis, and event tree analysis. Here, each method is accompanied by a self-contained description as well as workflow diagrams and worksheets that illustrate the use of discussed techniques. Important problem areas in risk assessment, such as barriers and barrier analysis, human errors, and human reliability, are discussed along with uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Each chapter concludes with a listing of resources for further study of the topic, and detailed appendices outline main results from probability and statistics, related formulas, and a listing of key terms used in risk assessment. A related website features problems that allow readers to test their comprehension of the presented material and supplemental slides to facilitate the learning process. Risk Assessment is an excellent book for courses on risk analysis and risk assessment at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It also serves as a valuable reference for engineers, researchers, consultants, and practitioners who use risk assessment techniques in their everyday work.
Combinatorial optimization is a multidisciplinary scientific area, lying in the interface of three major scientific domains: mathematics, theoretical computer science and management. The three volumes of the Combinatorial Optimization series aims to cover a wide range of topics in this area. These topics also deal with fundamental notions and approaches as with several classical applications of combinatorial optimization. “Applications of Combinatorial Optimization” is presenting a certain number among the most common and well-known applications of Combinatorial Optimization.
Most books in reliability theory are dealing with a description of component and system states as binary: functioning or failed. However, many systems are composed of multi-state components with different performance levels and several failure modes. There is a great need in a series of applications to have a more refined description of these states, for instance, the amount of power generated by an electrical power generation system or the amount of gas that can be delivered through an offshore gas pipeline network. This book provides a descriptive account of various types of multistate system, bound-for multistate systems, probabilistic modeling of monitoring and maintenance of multistate systems with components along with examples of applications. Key Features: Looks at modern multistate reliability theory with applications covering a refined description of components and system states. Presents new research, such as Bayesian assessment of system availabilities and measures of component importance. Complements the methodological description with two substantial case studies. Reliability engineers and students involved in the field of reliability, applied mathematics and probability theory will benefit from this book.
The book has been developed in conjunction with NERS 462, a course offered every year to seniors and graduate students in the University of Michigan NERS program. The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used to analyze the unavailability of systems with repairs, fault trees and event trees used in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear applications, although there is an emphasis placed on the analysis of nuclear systems. The second half of the book covers the safety analysis of nuclear energy systems, an analysis of major accidents and incidents that occurred in commercial nuclear plants, applications of PRA techniques to the safety analysis of nuclear power plants (focusing on a major PRA study for five nuclear power plants), practical PRA examples, and emerging techniques in the structure of dynamic event trees and fault trees that can provide a more realistic representation of complex sequences of events. The book concludes with a discussion on passive safety features of advanced nuclear energy systems under development and approaches taken for risk-informed regulations for nuclear plants.
An overview of the methods used for risk analysis in a variety of industrial sectors, with a particular focus on the consideration of human aspects, this book provides a definition of all the fundamental notions associated with risks and risk management, as well as clearly placing the discipline of risk analysis within the broader context of risk management processes. The author begins by presenting a certain number of basic concepts, followed by the general principle of risk analysis. He then moves on to examine the ISO31000 standard, which provides a specification for the implementation of a risk management approach. The ability to represent the information we use is crucial, so the representation of knowledge, covering both information concerning the risk occurrence mechanism and details of the system under scrutiny, is also considered. The different analysis methods are then presented, firstly for the identification of risks, then for their analysis in terms of cause and effect, and finally for the implementation of safety measures. Concrete examples are given throughout the book and the methodology and method can be applied to various fields (industry, health, organization, technical systems). Contents Part 1. General Concepts and Principles 1. Introduction. 2. Basic Notions. 3. Principles of Risk Analysis Methods. 4. The Risk Management Process (ISO31000). Part 2. Knowledge Representation 5. Modeling Risk. 6. Measuring the Importance of a Risk. 7. Modeling of Systems for Risk Analysis. Part 3. Risk Analysis Method 8. Preliminary Hazard Analysis. 9. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis. 10. Deviation Analysis Using the HAZOP Method. 11. The Systemic and Organized Risk Analysis Method. 12. Fault Tree Analysis. 13. Event Tree and Bow-Tie Diagram Analysis. 14. Human Reliability Analysis. 15. Barrier Analysis and Layer of Protection Analysis. Part 4. Appendices Appendix 1. Occupational Hazard Checklists. Appendix 2. Causal Tree Analysis. Appendix 3. A Few Reminders on the Theory of Probability. Appendix 4. Useful Notions in Reliability Theory. Appendix 5. Data Sources for Reliability. Appendix 6. A Few Approaches for System Modelling. Appendix 7. CaseStudy: Chemical Process. Appendix 8. XRisk Software. About the Authors Jean-Marie Flaus is Professor at Joseph Fourier University in Grenoble, France.
A holistic approach to service reliability and availability of cloud computing Reliability and Availability of Cloud Computing provides IS/IT system and solution architects, developers, and engineers with the knowledge needed to assess the impact of virtualization and cloud computing on service reliability and availability. It reveals how to select the most appropriate design for reliability diligence to assure that user expectations are met. Organized in three parts (basics, risk analysis, and recommendations), this resource is accessible to readers of diverse backgrounds and experience levels. Numerous examples and more than 100 figures throughout the book help readers visualize problems to better understand the topic—and the authors present risks and options in bulleted lists that can be applied directly to specific applications/problems. Special features of this book include: Rigorous analysis of the reliability and availability risks that are inherent in cloud computing Simple formulas that explain the quantitative aspects of reliability and availability Enlightening discussions of the ways in which virtualized applications and cloud deployments differ from traditional system implementations and deployments Specific recommendations for developing reliable virtualized applications and cloud-based solutions Reliability and Availability of Cloud Computing is the guide for IS/IT staff in business, government, academia, and non-governmental organizations who are moving their applications to the cloud. It is also an important reference for professionals in technical sales, product management, and quality management, as well as software and quality engineers looking to broaden their expertise.
An accessible introduction to metaheuristics and optimization, featuring powerful and modern algorithms for application across engineering and the sciences From engineering and computer science to economics and management science, optimization is a core component for problem solving. Highlighting the latest developments that have evolved in recent years, Engineering Optimization: An Introduction with Metaheuristic Applications outlines popular metaheuristic algorithms and equips readers with the skills needed to apply these techniques to their own optimization problems. With insightful examples from various fields of study, the author highlights key concepts and techniques for the successful application of commonly-used metaheuristc algorithms, including simulated annealing, particle swarm optimization, harmony search, and genetic algorithms. The author introduces all major metaheuristic algorithms and their applications in optimization through a presentation that is organized into three succinct parts: Foundations of Optimization and Algorithms provides a brief introduction to the underlying nature of optimization and the common approaches to optimization problems, random number generation, the Monte Carlo method, and the Markov chain Monte Carlo method Metaheuristic Algorithms presents common metaheuristic algorithms in detail, including genetic algorithms, simulated annealing, ant algorithms, bee algorithms, particle swarm optimization, firefly algorithms, and harmony search Applications outlines a wide range of applications that use metaheuristic algorithms to solve challenging optimization problems with detailed implementation while also introducing various modifications used for multi-objective optimization Throughout the book, the author presents worked-out examples and real-world applications that illustrate the modern relevance of the topic. A detailed appendix features important and popular algorithms using MATLAB® and Octave software packages, and a related FTP site houses MATLAB code and programs for easy implementation of the discussed techniques. In addition, references to the current literature enable readers to investigate individual algorithms and methods in greater detail. Engineering Optimization: An Introduction with Metaheuristic Applications is an excellent book for courses on optimization and computer simulation at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also a valuable reference for researchers and practitioners working in the fields of mathematics, engineering, computer science, operations research, and management science who use metaheuristic algorithms to solve problems in their everyday work.
This book includes two parts. The first part is more theoretical and general, and it covers fundamental principles: geospatial climate data measurement; spatial analysis, mapping and climate; geographical information, remote sensing and climatology; and geographical information for initialisation of forecasting and climate models. The second part describes geographical information used in various climate applications of importance today, related to risk: urban climate; air pollution; hydrological problems linked to climatology; forest fires.
The monograph is devoted to a problem of production and sale of the concentrating and mountain equipment. The economic evaluation of production and sale is opened in the following sequence. The economic essence of the concept «insolvency» of the entity is stated. The reasons of risk of insolvency, its role in diagnostic approaches to solvency analysis of the entity, are called and analysed possibilities of a risk assessment of insolvency of the entity. By means of assessment of a condition the model of the analysis and a risk assessment of insolvency of the entity, an algorithm of its application in the analysis of machine-building enterprise is developed. Assessment of a condition of production and sale is carried out based on huge statistical material on influence of structure and structure of current assets on solvency of machinebuilding enterprise, liquidity of balance and assessment of liquidity and efficiency of cash flows for strengthening and optimization of activities. With use of integration of methods approbation of an analysis technique and a risk assessment of insolvency of machine-building enterprise is carried out and the possibilities of its optimization are considered. In an analysis result, assessment and developed offers the management concept is formulated by liquidity of machine-building enterprise and decrease in risk of insolvency, the principles of its forming and the mechanism of implementation are shown.