The book threw light on the growth and development of the stock market and observed that the development of the stock market highly depends on volatility and forecasting is an important area of research in financial market. The book measured the extent of stock price volatility in select companies of Automobile, Infrastructure, Manufacturing, Pharmaceutical and Services and identified suitable model for forecasting the volatility of the share prices in India. It evaluated the comparative ability of different statistical and econometric forecasting models in the context of Indian Stocks. Three different competing models were considered for the book and for forecasting performance of different models two forecasting error statistics viz., Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) were used and the best model was suggested for each sector. The EGARCH model provides the most accurate forecast compared to other competing models in the book. The book also made a few observations which may help the investors to understand better about the stock market.
This book shed light upon the efficiency of Indian stock market by examining the causal and contemporaneous relationship between volume and return, and volume and volatility. It would further help to comment upon whether the introduction of various reforms causes change in the price discovery efficiency in terms of return-volume linkage. Studying the relations between the returns, volatility and trading volume in the India would help to uncover whether the Indian stock market exhibits a positive price-volume relations as found in mature markets. This book would further enable us to uncover whether the price-volume relation in the Indian stock market exhibits different characteristics from those in developed markets. In fact, the different characteristics of the Indian stock market with respect to information flows and institutional structure can provide new insight into the price volume relation. This book would also enhance the understanding of market asymmetry, market efficiency and information processing of Indian stock market. Thus, studying the joint dynamics of return, volatility and volume will surely strengthen the power of investors for making strategies in Indian market.
This is a comprehensive study of • Volatility measurement and comparison between cash and futures markets of NSE, Mumbai. • Impact of derivatives trade upon cash segment of stock market • Determination of market among cash and futures which react to flow of information faster and hence leads the other in a minute wise break up of data • Price discovery of futures in Indian stock market. The study offers an insightful look upon the extent to which derivatives trade stabilize or destabilize the underlying cash market and how should these risks be addressed.The study and results of this study are crucial to investors, stock exchange officials, regulators, academicians, practitioners and researchers. Derivatives play an important role in price discovery process and in completing the market. Their role in risk management for institutional investors and mutual fund managers need hardly be overemphasized.
Volatility in Capital Markets has been an important issue since the development of capital markets across globe, however with the pioneering models by Robert Engle and Bollerslev, the study of stock market volatility has bought new dimensions in the financial literature. This book also emphasizes the study of volatility in Indian Capital Market after the introduction of financial derivatives in comparison to the pre-derivative period. The very purpose of introduction of financial derivatives in Indian Capital Market is to stabilize the price fluctuations. However, it’s always been debated concerning the introduction of derivative instruments and their effectiveness in curbing the volatility and through this book a small attempt is being made to emphasize the issue. The book may help Investors, Portfolio Managers, Professional Money Managers, Researchers, Academicians and Policy Makers in understanding the extent to which financial derivative has stabilize the volatility in Indian Stock Market.
Volatility is an important phenomenon in any market in general and stock markets in particular. Analysing stock market volatility has been subject matter of great concern to policy makers and practioners. The book attempts to analyse nature and pattern of volatility of Indian Stock Markets using ARCH/GARCH classes of models. The book follows a unique approach to analyse the data set using EViews software. It explains step-by-step procedure to carry out the data analysis. This makes the analysis and interpretation easy to understand and follow. Any researcher who wants to perform time series data analysis will certainly find the approach useful.
This substantially enlarged new edition of a well-established book aims at making its readers well-equipped with theories,concepts and techniques which can be applied to various levels of investment decision making.Consistent with this objective, the author have taken an analytical approach while dwelling on the subject matter.With an overall objective of doing creative investment management,taking sound investment decisions and maximizing wealth - is the focus of the book. SALIENT FEATURES • To identify the significant determinants of Share Price of 'A' group and 'B' Group shares of the select banks and to examine its relationship with various explanatory variables • To measure the volatility of stock return relative to market return and the riskiness of the select securities. • To investigate whether prices of stocks in Bombay Stock Exchange follow a Random Walk Process (i.e. weak form of efficiency) as required by the market efficiency theory.
This new edition of "Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets" assumes that the reader has a firm grounding in the key principles and methods of understanding volatility measurement and builds on that knowledge to detail cutting-edge modelling and forecasting techniques. It provides a survey of ways to measure risk and define the different models of volatility and return. Editors John Knight and Stephen Satchell have brought together an impressive array of contributors who present research from their area of specialization related to volatility forecasting. Readers with an understanding of volatility measures and risk management strategies will benefit from this collection of up-to-date chapters on the latest techniques in forecasting volatility.Chapters new to this third edition are: What good is a volatility model?
This study examined long-term relationships between oil prices from OPEC reference basket and stock prices of 12 oil and gas companies listed on the Karachi Stock Exchange as well as with their respective trade volumes. Since oil is the major input for oil companies so they are bound to be susceptible to fluctuations in the value of international crude. This study was conducted to estimate cointegration between oil price volatility and stock prices as well as oil price and trading volume of oil companies trading on KSE and to identify the long run behavior and to adjust the short term disequilibrium with other periods of the long run.
This book helps to search a suitable model for the daily volume data series of Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) and to forecast the future outline. ML - ARCH (Marquardt) method has been used to build up the models for the volume data series by using statistical software’s Eviews verson-5. Firstly, we fitted an ARIMA model and observed that there were present heteroskewdastic transactions. Then, we used different ARCH class volatility models but one of them we used intervention shock and selected the ARIMA with EGARCH model. Our findings established that ARIMA with EGARCH model comprises low residual variance and low forecast error for volume data and thus, the modeling concept used in this paper would be useful for the investors or researchers to resolve the future value of share volume.
The work presented in this book views volatility modeling from the standpoint of a short term investor or speculator whose investment horizon does not exceed one trading day. A crucial question for such an investor is how large a move is to be expected once a position is open. For this purpose, predictions of different volatility measures provide different levels of usefulness. An above average standard deviation prediction indicates higher volatility, however it is difficult to assess the exact extent of future price movement, as there is no clear connection between standard deviation and ranges (differences between highest and lowest daily prices). A proper prediction of the day's range is, however, helpful as it can be directly translated into profit targets, stop losses, etc., and thus can be used for the management of an open position. Specifically, in this thesis we use an array of different models to predict daily ranges. We investigate the information content of lagged intraday sessions (Asian, European, ...) and analyze the possibility of obtaining real-time updates of daily volatility forecasts with the arrival of new market information.
This research is designed to study the weak form efficiency in the Indian stock Market. To keep the research design in-line with the research objectives the researcher has taken due care, that the tools used in research are objective oriented. Stock markets are full of wonders. Several times, they move without any logical reasons, while several times they do not react to some specific information in an expected manner. This kind of nature of markets is named as random walk theory or weak form efficiency by researchers. On the other hand, quite a few times, markets perform in the direction of expectations around some events. The research data are analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics distribution patterns (test for normality of distribution of price changes), which is a measure of the randomness of price changes, serve as the descriptive statistics while inferential tests consist of testing the SENSEX and NIFTY of the Indian stock exchange for independence (using serial correlation test), randomness (using runs test, Variance Ratio test), stationarity (using Unit root test) and Volatility (using ARCH and GARCH models).
Over the years, Indian stock market has grown tremendously in terms of market turnover, market indices and market capitalization. It features a developed regulatory environment, a modern market infrastructure, better allocation and mobilization of resources and a rapidly developing stock market. The application of other models and also examination of size effect for the portfolios along with seasonal anomaly will throw interesting light on the working of the an emerging market like India. The stock markets within a specific region as well as across different regions are found to be closely integrated, exhibiting uniform patterns of movement across different months and weeks. Stock markets within specific regions show no significant variation in volatility. However, there is significant variation in volatility in stock exchanges in different regions of the world. Hence, only a few companies selected on this study, future research will be focused on select with attempt to understand the seasonal pattern and extent of stock market volatility across time periods and across courtiers.
An A to Z options trading guide for the new millennium and the new economy Written by professional trader and quantitative analyst Euan Sinclair, Option Trading is a comprehensive guide to this discipline covering everything from historical background, contract types, and market structure to volatility measurement, forecasting, and hedging techniques. This comprehensive guide presents the detail and practical information that professional option traders need, whether they're using options to hedge, manage money, arbitrage, or engage in structured finance deals. It contains information essential to anyone in this field, including option pricing and price forecasting, the Greeks, implied volatility, volatility measurement and forecasting, and specific option strategies. Explains how to break down a typical position, and repair positions Other titles by Sinclair: Volatility Trading Addresses the various concerns of the professional options trader Option trading will continue to be an important part of the financial landscape. This book will show you how to make the most of these profitable products, no matter what the market does.
Research for developing price forecasting tools in deregulated markets is at an intermediate stage. Researchers have developed various forecasting models covering most of the deregulated markets. The researchers have paid more attention towards price forecasting in day-ahead electricity markets as compared to real-time electricity markets; whereas, price forecasting in real time electricity markets is difficult as compared to day-ahead electricity markets. Short term price forecasting (STPF) is a complex task because price series is highly volatile with non-constant mean and variance, which is due to non-storable nature and stiff condition of maintaining real time balance of demand and supply of electricity. Considering these points, this work addresses two main issues: first, it discusses the state of the art in short term price forecasting (STPF) and provides an overview of the available literature on STPF models and explain various key issues while developing a price forecasting model; and secondly, it performs an assessment, detailed comparison and evaluation of the forecasting performance of various linear and non-linear models in real time single settlement markets.